Deep DiveMarch 5, 2026
The Recovery Waterfall: What Venezuelan Creditors Actually Get
A scenario-by-scenario analysis of creditor recoveries under 30-, 50-, and 70-cent restructuring outcomes, mapped against the full hierarchy of claims -- from Republic bondholders to ICSID award holders to bilateral creditors. Who gets paid first, who gets haircut, and what the math looks like across political and oil-price assumptions.
Executive Summary