Deep DiveSeptember 24, 2026
The Ceiling
What the Venezuelan budget can actually carry: a bottom-up debt sustainability analysis. The Desk reconstructs usable revenue, essential spending, the official-creditor repayment hump and the residual capacity available to commercial claims across three scenarios.
Every number in a sovereign restructuring eventually traces back to one question: how much can the debtor pay, year after year, without breaking? For Venezuela that question has been answered so far from the top down, by applying ratios to a GDP figure nobody has measured and a revenue figure that counts money the Treasury never receives.